Introduction and overview.
Trend curves:
Futurera have these trendcurves as options:
The application futurera uses a simple algoritme; it needs at least 5 and maximum of 16 datapoints of the demand data. If there is more than 16 datapoints, then the most recents 16 will usesd. It is not that precise and have a margin of errors in the range of a few percent. This is okay, because furerera is a discovery software.
Becasuse it is a discovery application, it is best to use data with a frequency / periodicity of a year.
Slope characteristics of trendcurves
The slope is the rate of growth of the various trend curves which gives straight lines when plotted against time. The slope characteristic for each trend curve is compared with the slope characteristic of the demand data and if the same linear relationship with time is obtained for a period of the data the the procedure would suggest that there is no apparent misfit to the demand data for the period.
Plot | Shape | Curve |
---|---|---|
Slope | Horizontal | Straight line |
Slope | At an angle to the horizontal | Parabola |
Slope / (Moving Average) | Horizontal | Simpel Exponential |
Slope / (Moving Average) | At an angle to the horizontal | Logarithmic Parabola |
Logaritme of Slope | Sloping down to the right | Simple Modified Exponential |
Logaritme of { Slope / (Moving Average) } | Sloping down to the right | Gompertz |
Logaritme of { Slope / (Moving Average)2 } | Sloping down to the right | Logistic |
The application futurera takes 5 datapoints and tries to find a best straight line (with linear regression). It takes the the next datapoint and repeat the process.
The application futurera has a method to calculate the slopes.