f u t u r e ra
Forecasting

SUMMARY

-decomposition

Decomposition is a multicomponent model. It assumes that the time series is composed of four components: trend, seasonality, cyclical components and irregular components. The seasonal component is constant from year to year.



The model is:
Yt = f(Tt,Ct,St,e)

Where,
Yt = Actual value of the time series at time
f = Mathematical function of
T = Trend
C = Cyclical influences
S = Seasonal influences
e = error

Seasonal variations are: ..., 12 months, 4 quarters, 7 days, ...
The risidual component e, error, is not explained by T, C and S. There are two types of decomposition models:
Y = T + C + S + e, the additive model
Y = T * C * S * e, the multiplicative model

We will illustrate with a simple example.

The additive Model


The multiplicative Model

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